NBA / Matchups / Nuggets vs Warriors

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

Next meeting: Monday, October 26 at 10:00 PM ET. Our model gives Nuggets a 81% chance, projecting DEN -11.2. The sportsbook market, with the vig removed, has them at 67%.

81%

Nuggets win chance, our model

67%

Nuggets win chance, market (1 books)

+15 pts

Model minus market

A gap between the model and the market is a reason to look closer, not a signal to bet. The market already prices injuries and news. See expected value.

Team ratings (last season)

	Record	Off rating	Def rating	Net	Pace
Warriors	37-45	112.7 #18	113.3 #17	-0.6	101.0 #18
Nuggets	54-28	120.3 #1	115.3 #21	5.1	100.2 #20

Ratings are points per 100 possessions. A lower defensive rating is better. Rank in the league next to each number.

Golden State Warriors: recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
2026-10-24	at Phoenix Suns	L 122-131	+9.5 covered	221.5 over
2026-10-23	vs Memphis Grizzlies	L 108-111	-4.5 missed	236.5 under
2026-10-21	at Los Angeles Lakers	L 105-127	+6.5 missed	233.5 under
2026-04-17	at Phoenix Suns	L 96-111	+3.0 missed	219.5 under
2026-04-15	at LA Clippers	W 126-121	+5.5 covered	220.5 over

Denver Nuggets: recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
2026-10-24	vs New Orleans Pelicans	W 141-135	-11.5 missed	239.5 over
2026-10-22	at Oklahoma City Thunder	L 84-96	+8.5 missed	236.5 under
2026-04-30	at Minnesota Timberwolves	L 98-110	-7.5 missed	223.5 under
2026-04-27	vs Minnesota Timberwolves	W 125-113	-11.5 covered	225.5 over
2026-04-25	at Minnesota Timberwolves	L 96-112	-1.5 missed	228.5 under

Injuries and absences

Compiled from official league injury reports and beat reporters. Statuses change often and some entries are reports, not confirmations. Check the team's final report before game time.

Team	Player	Status	Expected return
GSW	Jimmy Butler G-F	out	2027-01-02
GSW	Stephen Curry G	day-to-day	2026-10-26
GSW	Moses Moody G	out	2026-12-01
GSW	Kristaps Porzingis F-C	out	2026-12-01
GSW	Brandin Podziemski G	day-to-day	2026-10-26
GSW	Gui Santos F	day-to-day	2026-10-26
GSW	Al Horford C-F	day-to-day	2026-10-26
GSW	Draymond Green F	day-to-day	2026-10-26
DEN	Cameron Johnson F	day-to-day	2026-10-26
DEN	Spencer Jones F	day-to-day	2026-10-26
DEN	Julian Strawther G	out	2026-11-29
DEN	Alpha Diallo G	day-to-day	2026-10-26

Team leaders (last season)

Team	Stat	Player	Per game
GSW	Points	Stephen Curry (day-to-day)	26.6
GSW	Rebounds	Jimmy Butler (out)	5.6
GSW	Assists	Draymond Green (day-to-day)	5.5
DEN	Points	Nikola Jokic	27.7
DEN	Rebounds	Nikola Jokic	12.9
DEN	Assists	Nikola Jokic	10.7

Season series, Nuggets vs Warriors

Date	Game	Result
Oct 26, 2026	Warriors at Nuggets	Upcoming
Dec 25, 2026	Nuggets at Warriors	Upcoming
Mar 12, 2027	Warriors at Nuggets	Upcoming

Team snapshots

Team	Record	PPG	Opp PPG
Denver Nuggets	1-1	112.5	115.5
Golden State Warriors	0-3	111.7	123.0

how point spreads work · totals · compare sportsbooks

Source: Oddsloft projections and archived sportsbook prices. Page built Oct 25, 2026, 2:18 PM ET. Information only, not betting advice. Responsible gambling.