Expected value calculator
Enter the odds, your estimate of the true win chance and your stake. We show the expected value and the break-even chance.
How it works
EV = win chance × profit − loss chance × stake. The break-even chance is what the price implies. If your estimate is higher, the bet has positive EV on paper. The estimate is the hard part: see expected value explained. Kelly shows the stake that maximizes growth if your estimate is exactly right; most people use a fraction.