NBA / Matchups / Heat vs Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat

Next meeting: Monday, October 26 at 7:30 PM ET. Our model gives Heat a 75% chance, projecting MIA -8.5. The sportsbook market, with the vig removed, has them at 73%.

75%

Heat win chance, our model

73%

Heat win chance, market (1 books)

+2 pts

Model minus market

A gap between the model and the market is a reason to look closer, not a signal to bet. The market already prices injuries and news. See expected value.

Team ratings (last season)

	Record	Off rating	Def rating	Net	Pace
Mavericks	26-56	109.2 #27	114.5 #20	-5.3	103.6 #4
Heat	43-39	114.5 #13	112.3 #14	2.2	105.4 #1

Ratings are points per 100 possessions. A lower defensive rating is better. Rank in the league next to each number.

Dallas Mavericks: recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
2026-10-24	vs San Antonio Spurs	L 106-122	+14.5 missed	229.5 under
2026-10-23	at Indiana Pacers	W 121-105	+7.5 covered	242.5 under
2026-10-21	at Houston Rockets	L 110-128	+10.5 missed	230.5 over
2026-04-12	vs Chicago Bulls	W 149-128	-5.0 covered	249.5 over
2026-04-10	at San Antonio Spurs	L 120-139	+18.5 missed	236.5 over

Miami Heat: recent games

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
2026-10-24	at Charlotte Hornets	L 110-115	-4.5 missed	227.5 under
2026-10-23	vs Detroit Pistons	L 111-128	+1.5 missed	234.5 over
2026-10-21	vs Minnesota Timberwolves	L 106-131	-1.5 missed	240.5 under
2026-04-14	at Charlotte Hornets	L 126-127	+6.0 covered	228 over
2026-04-12	vs Atlanta Hawks	W 143-117	-10.5 covered	240.5 over

Injuries and absences

Compiled from official league injury reports and beat reporters. Statuses change often and some entries are reports, not confirmations. Check the team's final report before game time.

Team	Player	Status	Expected return
DAL	Kyrie Irving G	day-to-day	2026-10-26
DAL	Cooper Flagg F	out	2026-11-02
DAL	Dereck Lively II C	out	2026-10-28
DAL	Santi Aldama F	out	2026-10-28
DAL	Tarik Biberovic F	out	2026-11-02
DAL	Caleb Martin F	out	2026-11-02

Team leaders (last season)

Team	Stat	Player	Per game
DAL	Points	Cooper Flagg (out)	21.0
DAL	Rebounds	P.J. Washington	7.0
DAL	Assists	Cooper Flagg (out)	4.5
MIA	Points	Giannis Antetokounmpo	27.6
MIA	Rebounds	Bam Adebayo	10.0
MIA	Assists	Davion Mitchell	6.5

Season series, Heat vs Mavericks

Date	Game	Result
Oct 26, 2026	Mavericks at Heat	Upcoming
Dec 29, 2026	Heat at Mavericks	Upcoming

Team snapshots

Team	Record	PPG	Opp PPG
Miami Heat	0-3	109.0	124.7
Dallas Mavericks	1-2	112.3	118.3

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Source: Oddsloft projections and archived sportsbook prices. Page built Oct 25, 2026, 2:18 PM ET. Information only, not betting advice. Responsible gambling.