Research
Do NBA player prop overs or unders hit more?
We graded 147,660 NBA player props from the 2025-26 season against the consensus closing line. Unders won 51.5% of the time and overs 48.5%. The gap is real, but it is smaller than what the sportsbook charges.
Over and under rates by stat
The last column is the share of bets you must win to break even after the sportsbook's margin on that stat. An under rate below it still loses money over time.
| Stat | Props | Over | Under | Break-even per side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-pointers | 17,577 | 46.2% | 53.8% | 53.4% |
| Rebounds | 19,741 | 48.3% | 51.7% | 53.4% |
| Assists | 18,090 | 48.5% | 51.5% | 53.4% |
| Reb + Ast | 16,539 | 48.7% | 51.3% | 53.4% |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 20,033 | 48.8% | 51.2% | 53.4% |
| Points | 20,212 | 48.8% | 51.2% | 53.4% |
| Pts + Reb | 18,533 | 49.0% | 51.0% | 53.4% |
| Pts + Ast | 16,935 | 49.3% | 50.7% | 53.4% |
What this means
- Lines are set slightly too high on average, so unders win a bit more than half the time in every NBA stat.
- Three-pointers show the biggest lean. Streaky shooting makes the over harder to hit than the average implies.
- Sportsbooks charge about 6% to 8% on props (see the margin by book), which is bigger than the lean in most stats. Only three-pointers clear the break-even line, and only by a fraction of a point at average prices.
- The consensus line is not a price you can bet. Any single book's price can be better or worse, so treat even that edge as untested.
- Results on a closing line do not tell you what the price was when you bet. See closing line value.
NFL props, early 2026 season
The NFL sample is small so far (2,904 props), so treat these as a first look, not a pattern.
| Stat | Props | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 371 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Rush attempts | 229 | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Receptions | 745 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Receiving yards | 748 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
Method
Each prop is graded against the consensus line from the major US sportsbooks before tip-off. Pushes are excluded. Break-even is (100% + average margin) / 2 for the stat. Page built Oct 25, 2026, 12:19 PM ET. This is research, not a betting system, and past results do not predict future ones. Responsible gambling.