Closing line value (CLV) explained
Closing line value compares the price you took with the price at the close. It is a way to judge your decisions without waiting for results.
The idea
The closing line is the market's final estimate. If you consistently beat it, you were buying prices that later became worse, which is a sign your information or timing is good. Results are noisy over small samples. CLV is less noisy.
Example
You bet a team at +110. The line closes at +100 (even money).
- +110 implies 100 / 210 = 47.6%
- +100 implies 50.0%
- CLV = 50.0% − 47.6% = +2.4 points
Learn the conversion in implied probability and the vig.
Caveats
- Compare the same book or the no-vig market, otherwise margin differences look like CLV.
- Positive CLV does not guarantee a profit, especially over a small number of bets.
- For props, lines can close at a different number, so convert both to a probability before comparing.
See also how lines move and expected value.