San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Week 7, Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET. Our model gives Falcons a 34% chance, projecting ATL +5.4. The market line is ATL +2.5 with a total of 50.
34%
Falcons win chance, our model
43%
Falcons win chance, market (6 books)
-9 pts
Model minus market
A gap between the model and the market is a reason to look closer, not a signal to bet. See expected value.
Line movement
| Opened | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread (ATL) | +4.5 | +2.5 |
| Total | 49.5 | 50 |
Weather
Atlanta, GA. Retractable roof: weather matters only if the roof is open. See the week's forecasts.
Team stats per game
| Record | Points | Allowed | Pass yds | Rush yds | Off EPA | Def EPA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 6-0 | 29.5 | 18.3 | 243.3 | 128.2 | +0.14 | -0.02 |
| Falcons | 2-4 | 23.7 | 25.5 | 211.0 | 149.5 | -0.00 | -0.01 |
San Francisco 49ers: recent games
| Opponent | Result | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs Washington Commanders | W 23-17 | -7.5 missed | 51.5 under |
| at Seattle Seahawks | W 32-29 | +3 covered | 46.5 over |
| vs Denver Broncos | W 24-14 | -3 covered | 48.5 under |
| vs Arizona Cardinals | W 36-30 | -7.5 missed | 48.5 over |
| vs Miami Dolphins | W 35-13 | – | – |
Atlanta Falcons: recent games
| Opponent | Result | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs Chicago Bears | L 23-31 | +1.5 missed | 51.5 over |
| vs Baltimore Ravens | L 23-30 | -3.5 missed | 43.5 over |
| at New Orleans Saints | W 45-24 | +1 covered | 47.5 over |
| at Green Bay Packers | W 35-14 | – | – |
| vs Carolina Panthers | L 3-34 | – | – |
Injury report
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Brandon Aiyuk | Out | – |
| SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. | Out | hamstring |
| SF | Garret Wallow | Out | hamstring |
| SF | Luke Gifford | Out | groin |
| SF | Marques Sigle | Out | ankle |
| SF | Mike Evans | Out | achilles |
| SF | Nick Bosa | Out | knee |
| SF | Brett Toth | Questionable | concussion |
| ATL | Anterio Thompson | Out | – |
| ATL | Billy Bowman Jr. | Out | hamstring |
| ATL | Brian Robinson Jr. | Out | hamstring |
| ATL | Divine Deablo | Out | forearm |
| ATL | Avieon Terrell | Questionable | back |
| ATL | C.J. Henderson | Questionable | groin |
| ATL | Gervon Dexter Sr. | Questionable | – |
| ATL | Kendal Daniels | Questionable | neck |
Previous meetings
| Season | Week | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7 | ATL at SF | 10-20 |
| 2022 | 6 | SF at ATL | 14-28 |
| 2021 | 15 | ATL at SF | 13-31 |
This season: 49ers vs Falcons
| Week | Date | Game | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Oct 25, 2026 | 49ers at Falcons | Upcoming |
Team snapshots
| Team | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 6-0 | 177 | 110 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2-4 | 142 | 153 |